Crisis Algorithm

By John F. Beckmann, Ph.D.

Is there a list of questions you could ask upon a crisis… that would naturally chart your course of action without mistakes…

How do you prepare for the unexpected…?

The only way to prepare is by asking and answering questions.

So, what are the most pertinent questions in any/every crisis?

After brainstorming I identified 9 categories and 35 questions.

Measurement.

1) What am I going to need to measure?

2) What are the tools we need to measure this quickly and in real time?

3) Who is already the best at doing that?

4) Can we get them to help us?

Supply.

5) What are we going to run out of?

6) What are the weak links in the supply chain?

7) How can we strengthen the weak links?

8) How can we do things more cheaply, without losing effectiveness?

Math and Science.

9) Are we thinking statistically?

10) What are the error rates, false positives, false negatives, and p-values of the data we rely on?

11) What are our controls? What are we comparing to? Are they robust?

12) What are all our variables?

Prediction.

13) Where is the data trending?

14) How does data change with time scales?

15) What are our controls? What are we comparing to? Are they robust?

16) What would be the signs if our predictions were wrong?

17) What are the conditions of termination/winning?

Creativity.

18) How can we be creative about this?

19) What variables occupy the negative space? What is the dog that isn’t barking?

20) Which alternate fields (atypically not included) have something to offer us?

Human Nature.

21) Who are we assuming we can count on, but we really can’t? Who will let us down?

22) What are inconsistent human elements or patterns we are relying on?

23) How can we make our requests idiot proof or the most-simple?

24) Who do we need to seek advice from?

Antifragility.

25) How can I incorporate many diverse options, assuming most will fail?

26) How can I eliminate our exposure to rare and unpredictable events?

Timelines.

27) How does my thinking change if we think in short vs medium vs long time scales?

28) How long will it be before we see results?

29) How can we make things faster and see results faster?

30) Is there any downside to waiting and observing/measuring/intaking more data?

Action.

31) By acting, is it more likely that I will make things worse? Is it wiser to do nothing?

32) What options are we going to test?

33) What are we going to do?

34) How can we do this with 10 different methodologies at the same time, assuming most will fail?

35) Will results be significant or only aesthetic/appeasing?